Profitable MLB Betting Strategies
MLB is one of the absolutely most iconic of American sports, and also a very interesting sport to bet on. We will take a quick look at the basics of baseball betting lines as well at some of the most important aspects of the game you need to take into consideration in your MLB betting system.
If you’re a big baseball fan you should keep in mind that this article is written strictly from a betting perspective. Because that’s really all I am interested in personally 😉
Common MLB Betting Lines
Like with all sports, each bettor and system play different lines. But I think it is safe to say that the three most popular lines to bet in in MLB are: the money line, the point spread (called “run line” by some bookmakers) and game totals. With the money line you simply bet on which team will win.
The default spread for baseball is usually -1,5 for the favorite and +1,5 for the underdog. In other words, to cover the spread the favorite will have to win by at least 2 points and to win a +1,5 bet on the underdog your team can’t lose by more than 1 point.
Like with most other team sports you can also bet on additional run lines, with higher or lower odds. For example, the Alpha trend in Z-code splits each bet by (when certain conditions are met) betting on the favorite with 3 units on the money line and 1 unit on the -1 spread.
The game total is simply the total runs of a game. If the final score was 7-3 the game total would be 10. When betting on the spread you are trying to win by predicting if the final score will be over or under a certain number. This is in many regards a trickier bet than the first two, as the sportsbooks constantly tries to do their best to keep the odds as close to 50/50 as possible for the default spread. And one slipup from a pitcher can quickly turn the numbers of an otherwise close game quickly on its head.
Important Baseball Betting Factors
What follows is by no means an exhaustive list, but nevertheless very important things to pay attention to when betting on MLB.
MLB is a streaky sport with many games. Major League Baseball is played almost every single day during the summer months. Between April and October each MLB team plays a whopping 162 regular games.
The games are usually organized into 3-game (sometimes 2 or 4) mini series, where one road team plays the same home team 3 games in a row. The various teams are thus on the road most of the time, which may affect their performance. The teams also have a tendency to go on winning and losing streaks, but each team will of course do everything in their power to avoid the humiliation of getting swept – which is losing all the game in a mini series. Nevertheless, that happens every now and then.
The fact that two teams will encounter each other for up to four games in a row also opens up for interesting progression system plays. You may for example wager that out of 3 games Team X will win at least one game over Team Y. If Team X loses the first game you then place a B bet staking to win back what you lost on your fist bet in addition to what you would have won initially. If that bet also loses you move on to C and sometimes even a D bet.
In the ideal scenario you basically then would win 100% of your bets. But betting these kinds of progressions obviously require extra care to be taken, as you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you aren’t careful.
The importance of the pitcher. People who enjoy the game of baseball for other reasons than betting may perhaps disagree with me here, but the most important player on the baseball field is probably the pitcher. While a great pitcher may not be able to win the game single handedly if the bats of his team have suddenly gone cold, he can quickly lose the game for his team if he is having a terrible day.
Who is pitching and what form he is currently in is always an important factor to keep track of and most baseball bets are indeed placed with the condition that certain pitchers will be playing. If there’s a late, or even in-game pitcher change your bet will usually be void and your stake returned.
Following the smart money with line reversal. A line reversal is when there are drastic changes in the odds of a particular bet. In MLB this can be a surprisingly accurate indicator of which team will win – a team that has a sudden favorable line reversal will frequently end up winning the game, or at least covering the spread if it is an underdog.
However, in my experience the line reversals are more useful as a sort of confidence filter rather than flat out betting signals. If a team you are planning to place a bet on has a sudden line reversal against it, you may consider lowering your bet or sometimes dropping it altogether.
In any case, if you want to use line reversals to your advantage you will need an automated tool that shows you the signals in real time. One of the best tools of this kind is included free, both in desktop and mobile versions, with your membership in Zcode system.
With MLB betting statistics really matter! As you can see from the above, baseball offers some unique features that a smart bettor can take advantage of. There are plenty of statistics and data that, if you interpret and apply it correctly, can lead to amazingly accurate game predictions.
The place I personally have everything I need right at my fingertips is the Zcode membership – probably the prime source for winning MLB picks at the moment.
A few of these tips coupled with a good betting system can almost turn your MLB betting into a legal money printer.