Exterminator Sports Betting System Review

Earlier this summer I received an email from Tony Chau, the creator of The Sports Betting Champ and The Exterminator Sports Betting systems, asking if I would review his current product. I have also been asked by visitors to this site to review this system. Since the history of this system is a bit controversial and I thought the 97 percent win rate sounded a bit fishy I was hesitant to do so.

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However, the author was kind enough to send me some past records and an example of how the NBA system works. And this intrigued me enough to purchase the full Exterminator system with my own money (like all other systems I’ve reviewed on this site) to find out more.

In short, I’ve been both positively and negatively surprised.

Name Changes and Homeland Security – Uh-Oh?!

If you are not interested in the “bad press” this system has received in the past, and just want to know if it delivers or not, feel free to scroll down a bit to that section of the review.

But since many people will be hesitant to even look at the Exterminator system due to it’s recent history – it certainly made me raise an eyebrow – I think it is fair to say a few words about this first.

Portraits of Morrison and ChauMr. Chau’s first sports betting system was called the Sports Betting Champ, published under the pen name of “John Morrison“. Using a persona is of course nothing new when it comes to writing books, selling products etc. From what I’ve found the systems have been around, in some form or another, from 2007 at least.

The reason this system got into trouble was that John/Tony was also acting as an affiliate for a bookmaker. Being a US citizen this got him into legal trouble and his domain was seized by homeland security.

In the eyes of the state he was apparently running an illegal gambling business. In other words, this had nothing to do with the accuracy of his sports betting system or claims made in his sales copy, but with the fact that he associated himself with organized gambling.

According to Tony these legal issues have been sorted out and you can read his own version of the story here.

Changing The Rules While Playing?

Another critique Tony’s earlier systems have received, is that “when his system loses he comes up with new filters retrospectively in order to make it seem like he really won anyway”.

Since I didn’t follow his systems back then I can’t really comment on this. I can confirm however, that his current systems indeed have rather specific rules for when a bet is considered “official” or not. Since I bought the systems no further filters have been added.

What Do You Get With The Exterminator System?

But enough with the “politics”. What matters most is if this system can generate a profit or not, right?

The Exterminator sports betting system comes with three separate systems, placing bets on MLB, NFL and NBA games. The systems are delivered as three short PDF-books, clearly describing the rules of each system.

Exterminator system package

Without revealing too much I can say that the MLB system revolves around sweeps, the NFL system has to do with fumbles and the NBA one is kind of a “road dog” system.

There are very specific statistical prerequisites for a bet to qualify, but all the data needed to make the analysis is available for free via websites like ESPN. I followed the instructions for the MLB system and, since I started in the middle of the season, it took me little over an hour to go through all the relevant data. Due to the nature of the system, it would have been a lot less work upfront if I had been tracking the system from the start of the season.

The NFL system generates the fewest picks per season, through its history it seems to have generated between 1 and 9 picks per season, and is therefore very easy to apply.

Somewhat confusingly all the guides start off by explaining the original(?) Champ systems with the filters applied and only then goes on to explain how the Exterminator version is different. There’s no rocket science or advanced mathematics involved but you must read the guide from cover to cover to make sure you really understand what qualifies as an official Exterminator bet.

That said, this system comes with system picks sent to your email. So if you don’t want to make the calculations yourself (which I still recommend you do), Tony will actually deliver the correct picks for each system to your inbox without you lifting a finger. Since I bough the product these pick emails seem to have been delivered reliably.

97 Percent Wins – Really?!

The thing that made me very suspicious of this betting system was a mentioned 97 percent win rate – which on the face of it would simply be too good to be true.

original champ box covers

This figure stems from the original Champ system, that employs a progressive A-B-C betting strategy, chasing the win with progressively larger bets that also recoups previous losses – where you would count it as an official loss only after losing a C bet. In theory you could lose more bets than you win and still end up profitable.

The big problem with this is that you really can’t afford to lose many C-bets in a season, since the odds played are relatively low the stake for a C-bet will be substantially bigger than your initial A-bet. In practice you probably need that 97 percent win rate in order to not lose money. For a very selective system that is actually not as impossible as it sounds though.

Since I do not have the data I can’t comment on whether the earlier systems reached this goal or not, but given the record of the system(s) this MLB season it isn’t entirely unfeasible that they did.

Exterminator A Less Risky System

The Exterminator systems offered on thechampsystem.com employs a different, less drastic money management system that is much less likely to put a big hole in your wallet in case the systems go on a cold streak.

There is no chasing involved and instead you will be betting a certain percentage of your bankroll on each bet. Theoretically this means that you would never lose your entire bank even after a very long series of losses, as you’d be placing smaller and smaller bets.

The Results So Far

Thus far I have only had the chance to follow the MLB system, but I will try to update this section as the NFL and NBA seasons get under way.

As I write this the all the official Exterminator picks for the MLB and NFL seasons are played, and according to the official statistics:

2014

The Exterminator MLB system with all filters: 17 wins 5 losses
The Exterminator MLB system without filters: 44 wins 17 losses
A-B-C MLB system with filters: 23 wins 0 losses
A-B-C MLB system without filters: 31 wins 1 losses

The Exterminator NFL system: 1 win 0 losses
NFL System record 2005-2014: +18.8 units (with the standard -110 spread, about 1.9 in decimal odds)

 

Commentary Of Results

According to the official statistic the unfiltered Exterminator MLB system could have more than tripled  your bankroll, betting a fixed 10-15 percent of your bankroll on each bet.

Obviously though, in terms of win rate, in 2014 the A-B-C system would have been very profitable as well.

And this is perhaps my biggest actual problem with Chau’s systems so far. In his emails he does outline fairly well what is a pick under what system, and typically also the reason why a pick may be official or not.

While he is quick to take the credit for all wins (in subsequent emails) it is completely up to you to chose if you want to play unofficial bets or not. This season you’d have done really well playing any version of the system of course, but keep in mind that this might not be the case in future seasons. Just a couple of more losses on the unfiltered A-B-C system would probably have made you lose money.

I think the best thing to do is to pick your strategy and then stick with it, don’t jump around between the official/unofficial picks based on whatever seems better this week. If you want to play the unofficial picks you could do that with a smaller unit size instead.

At a first glance the barely +19 units of the NFL system in 9 years doesn’t sound very impressive. Calculating exactly what that might have translated to in real profits is also a little difficult – some of the games would have been played simultaneously making it impossible to adjust your bet size between all of the games. In terms of games won/lost the system has “never had a losing season”, but in the three seasons where the system won 50% of the picks you would realistically speaking likely have made a small loss.

Over the long haul the NFL system seems profitable hough, even if it on its own will likely not allow you to purchase a new super car anytime soon.

Buying Experience

The Exterminator Sports Betting System currently sells for a one time fee of 199 dollars. For that you get the 3 systems (with mentioned variations) as well as done for you picks delivered to your email “for life”.

exterminator membersship card

When I placed my purchase I was a bit surprised that the products weren’t instantly delivered, which is easily arranged these days. Instead, I had to enter my name and email address in a form and confirm. It took until the next day for me to receive download instructions for the guides in my inbox. I don’t know the reason for this somewhat clunky buying experience, or if it still works the same way. But if you purchase this product, be prepared that it may not be delivered instantly.

I was pleasantly surprised that there where no “upsells” after the checkout process. I suspected the initial purchase would be followed by one or several “congratulations on your investment, now if you really want to succeed with this…” sales funnels that seem popular online these days (don’t you just hate them!?).

As it turns out though, Tony does have several of these and he promotes them heavily in his emails instead – sometimes to the point where it becomes tricky to find the pick in all of the sales copy for his other systems.

These include his 125 $/month service called Picks Buffet as well as additional, “even more improved” systems for MLB and other sports. So far I haven’t tried any of these additional systems.

This does in no way detract from the actual performance of the Exterminator systems of course, but if you know you are easily sweet talked by sales copy it is something to be aware of.

Conclusion

If the Exterminator systems are worth your money depends on how you look at it. It is “only” 3 systems, out of which the NFL one will produce rather few actual bets (only 1 in 2014!) – you will literally only be betting on the first and in some cases second round of games for the entire season.

Depending on how many filters you choose to apply the MLB and NBA systems produce more bets and the principles behind them seem to be fairly evergreen. Considering that memberships like Zcode cost almost as much on a monthly basis I think it is actually rather decent value for your money.

Bear in mind though, that due to Mr. Chau’s chosen marketing strategy any major revisions to these systems will likely be offered as separate products rather than free upgrades.

As long as the current systems are profitable (an ongoing test on my part) there is no point in complaining though. Personally I can live with the drawbacks mentioned in this review. So, until further notice, I am carefully optimistic about this system.

Try Sports Betting Exterminator For Yourself Here

Summary:

  • Systems show promising wins so far
  • One time fee
  • Done for you pick service included
  • Distinction between official/unofficial picks can be confusing
  • Pitchy emails for additional products and services

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